TradeAgents
Research Lab.
Long-form analyses and post-mortems from the desk. Every figure comes from our data on the date shown, and every resulting fix is pinned by a test.
Rotation happens a level down
The S&P 500's eleven sectors hide their 25 industry groups. We rebuilt all 25 from the index's own constituents, checked them against the official indices, and found this year's tech rally was two groups, not one sector.
A forward multiple needs a forward history
Ranking today's forward P/E against five years of trailing P/Es marks every growing company cheap — for half of our 22-name test, as cheap as a percentile can go. Rebuilding a forward history fixed the ranking. Here is how, and what it still gets wrong.
TSM at a P/E of 1.01
A reader spotted TSM trading at one times earnings. It was three incompatible bases from one data feed — dollars per ADR, Taiwan dollars per ADR, and ordinary shares — and every figure they touched came out cheaper than the truth.
Grading the desk without flattering it
Before any hit rate, a ledger: one row per decision, measured from a close the call could actually have traded, counted in sessions rather than days — and deliberately storing no score of its own.
Every look-through number is a floor
Yahoo discloses a fund's top ten holdings — 37.6% of VOO, 13.0% of VXUS. Grossing the rest up would invent concentration at the moment you are judging it. So every figure is a lower bound, with its coverage beside it.