Interest Rate Probabilities

Market-implied odds of each Fed target range at every upcoming FOMC meeting · derived from CME 30-Day Fed Funds futures

Data as of Sep 10, 2026 06:04 · next refresh Sep 10, 2026 10:04 · ↻ Refresh · 🗓 Subscribe to meeting dates

Current target range

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Effective rate —

Next FOMC decision

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Base case at that meeting

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Probability of Each Target Range by Meeting

Each column totals 100%. The spread widens further out because uncertainty compounds across meetings.

Market-Implied Policy Rate Path

The expected effective fed funds rate after each meeting, backed out of the futures curve. The dashed line is today's rate.

Target Range History

Every change the Fed has actually made, as a step function. The band is the target range; before December 2008 the Fed set a single target rather than a range, so the band closes to a line.

Probability Grid

The same numbers as the chart above, in full. Rows are target ranges; columns are meeting dates.

How this is calculated

A CME 30-Day Fed Funds future (ZQ) settles to 100 minus the average daily effective fed funds rate over its delivery month, so 100 − price is the rate the market expects for that month. Because a new target range takes effect the day after an FOMC decision, a month containing a meeting blends the old and new rate in proportion to the days on each side — that lets the expected post-meeting rate be backed out contract by contract. Each meeting then moves in 25bp increments, so an expected change of, say, +10bp reads as a 40% chance of a 25bp move and 60% chance of no change. Chaining those odds across meetings produces the widening distribution above.

These are market-implied probabilities, not a forecast, and they move whenever the futures curve does. This page reproduces the CME FedWatch methodology from public data; it is not affiliated with CME Group.